AP MVP: Aaron Rodgers. And at the bottom of the list we find names like Robby Anderson, a free agent this offseason who reportedly drew few offers from teams; an aging Larry Fitzgerald; and the unsigned Kelvin Benjamin. Were there any indicators that could have pointed to such a breakout? These were somewhat shorter outs, averaging just 8.3 air yards per target, but Thomas still found a way to make the most of them, gaining an average of 2.72 yards after the catch on routes that are typically assigned to finish near the sideline. We think these weights make logical sense, in that a receiver has to get open to have the chance to make a catch. What Im curious about is the stickiness of each metric. However, Thomas is ranked atop this group because of his three touchdowns scored on slants, and his catch rate of 87.9 percent is also best among any receiver with 10 or more targets in the NFL. Well, the word useful will mean different things to different people. As previously discussed, Robert Foster hit those thresholds when it comes to yards per route run during his rookie year, but has yet to find fantasy relevance in the NFL. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY . Those numbers came in garbage time against Seattle and against Detroit and Washington, so they should be taken with a grain of salt. This result is a context-adjusted separation over expected (SOE) metric that we can calculate for each NFL receiver. Backs typically run swing routes, check downs and screens, which don't require excellent route-running skills but do rely on yards after catch for success. For starters, we could look at the top 10 seasons since 2017 (when our data begins). Brown, and Hunter Renfrow all ran at least 250 routes while also having at least 2.00 yards per route run. Let's dig into the methodology behind the Route Recognition model: The Next Gen Stats player-tracking system records the x-y location, speed, acceleration, direction and orientation of all 22 players on the field in real time. We use pass accuracy data from ESPN's video analysis tracking to adjust both the Catch Score and YAC Score based on the accuracy (high, low, ahead, behind) and intent of the throw. If a completion actually occurs, the quarterback would be credited with all the probability between that prediction and 1. While Allen and Anderson finished below catch-rate expectation, Robinson shattered his, posting a mark of +37.9 percent and making it pretty easy to see who was best in this department. The other two weird names on the list are cut from different clothes than Jones or Blackmon.